I Don’t Know The Answer, But It’s Not Cheetos at Midnight
Tariffs, taxes, and the case for real transparency, even when the math hurts.
At last week’s town hall in Astoria, someone asked me how I was going to vote on the proposed gas tax increase here in Oregon.
It's a fair question. And I gave the answer that probably frustrated the consultants in the back of the room: I don’t know yet. I didn’t deflect. I didn’t recite a party line.
I said I’m still thinking it through. Because I am.
I’ve heard from a lot of folks lately. Some are fed up with ODOT. Others think the gas tax is already too high. Some say, “Just move the DEI money over.” And a few are surprised that I, a Republican, would even consider supporting any new tax, ever, for any reason. Because, apparently, that’s the rule.
But then, some of those same voices (often the loudest critics of gas taxes) are also the first to cheer tariffs. Which, let’s be clear, are taxes. Hidden ones. Passed with no debate. And paid, not by China, but by you.
There’s a word for that kind of inconsistency. It’s called denial. It’s like eating Cheetos in the dark and wondering why your pants don’t fit.
So let’s lick the cheese off those fingers, put down the bag, and talk about a better way to fend off the fiscal munchies.
A Tale of Two Taxes
Let’s start with the gas tax.
The legislature is considering a six-cent increase per gallon. That’s not nothing. I get that. And I’m seriously weighing what that extra cost would mean for moms and dads, and for senior citizens who are already getting crushed by inflation. In fact, my wife reminded me just the other day that groceries are nearly double what they were a few months ago. She’s not wrong.
And that’s part of what makes this so complicated. Because even if we don’t raise the gas tax, the price at the pump still jumps around by ten or twenty cents a week. The gas tax increase would be a stable six cents. The market moves more than that before breakfast.
But it’s not just consumers who are feeling the squeeze. If you're an ODOT manager trying to keep crews working and roads drivable, you’re dealing with skyrocketing fuel prices, equipment costs, and labor. Asphalt is more expensive. Steel is more expensive. Running a diesel rig costs way more than it did two years ago. And the gas tax, ironically, is bringing in less money. Why? Because cars are becoming more fuel efficient, and more vehicles are electric.
So even as costs rise, revenue falls. The math isn’t partisan. It’s just math.
And Now, Let’s Talk About The Second Tax: Tariffs
Speaking of math, let’s zoom out for a second. Because, if we’re going to talk about taxes at the local level, we should also talk about tariffs at the national level.
While we're debating whether to publicly raise the gas tax through a legislative process that includes hearings, amendments, and votes, Washington, D.C. has quietly jacked up the cost of doing business (and on us) through tariffs. And there’s no hearing. No vote. No bill. Just one man and a Sharpie.
Tariffs are just taxes by another name. But they’re worse in one critical way: no one tells you they’re happening. There’s no “tariff” line on your grocery receipt or your Amazon order. But it’s there. You’re paying it.
And if we’re going to oppose taxes on principle, then shouldn’t we be at least mildly irritated that a president, any president, can single-handedly impose a hidden tax on every imported part, product, or ingredient without so much as a press conference?
Instead, we cheer. Because it “feels strong.” It “sticks it to China.” It’s got that old-school American swagger.
Look, I’m for fair trade. I’m for protecting IP. I’m for rebuilding U.S. manufacturing. But let’s not pretend these tariffs aren’t taxes. They are. And unlike the gas tax, you didn’t get a vote. There’s no paper trail. And there’s no accountability for where the money goes.
Small Businesses Feel It First
What happens when small businesses get stuck between high labor costs and rising prices for supplies? They get squeezed. And most can’t just raise prices whenever they want. Not when consumers are also tapped out.
That leaves a handful of lousy options: lay off workers, cut hours, scale back services, take on debt, or (if all else fails) turn off the lights.
And don’t even bring up pay raises. Most employers are just trying to survive the week without letting people go.
And no, it’s not just taxes doing this. It’s war. It’s bad policy. It’s broken supply chains. It’s energy markets. It’s an economy that’s still trying to shake off a global pandemic and a political class that seems addicted to shortcuts.
But tariffs are part of that squeeze. So if we’re going to be mad about gas taxes, let’s at least acknowledge we’re already paying a lot more in hidden taxes. We just can’t see them.
If you saw a “tariff tax” line on your grocery bill, we’d all be marching down Main Street with pitchforks. But because it’s invisible, we shrug.
Reagan Didn’t Govern by Slogan
Let me take a brief detour through conservative history.
Ronald Reagan is remembered, rightly, as a champion of tax cuts. In 1981, he signed the Economic Recovery Tax Act, slashing rates across the board. But by 1982, deficits were ballooning and the economy was gasping.
So Reagan did something we’re not supposed to talk about: he raised taxes. The Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act of 1982 rolled back some of those earlier cuts and closed loopholes. He later raised the gas tax. He expanded payroll taxes.
Because he understood that ideology is not a substitute for governing. That deficits matter. That infrastructure doesn’t maintain itself.
Reagan cut taxes when he could. He raised them when he had to. And he didn’t pretend that slogans were solutions.
What I Told the Town Hall
So when that town hall question came, “How are you going to vote on the gas tax?,”I could’ve rattled off a canned answer. I could’ve said what some people probably wanted to hear: “Absolutely not. No way. I’m a Republican.”
But that wouldn’t have been honest.
Instead, I said what I’m still saying now: I don’t know yet. I’m weighing it. Carefully. Because I see the full picture.
I see families who can’t afford another price hike. I see small businesses getting crushed by rising costs. I see an ODOT trying to operate in a world where everything costs more, and revenue is falling. I see voters who are skeptical that tax dollars are spent well. I see Republican voters who say they’re anti-tax but are strangely pro-tariff, as long as it comes wrapped in a flag.
And I think all of that deserves more than a bumper sticker.
The Honest Thing Is the Hard Thing
Here’s what I know for sure: we can’t pretend that slogans are policy. We can’t pretend that denying reality is a form of strength. And we can’t keep governing like we’re standing in the kitchen at 11 p.m., eating Cheetos in the dark and wondering why the country doesn’t fit like it used to.
Taxes aren’t great. But they’re necessary. And they should be transparent, voted on, and justified. The gas tax (whatever you think of it) is at least going through the process. You’ll see who voted for it. You can hold us accountable.
Tariffs? Not so much.
So no, I’m not for taxing our way out of every problem. But I’m also not for pretending we can fix anything without paying for it.
The hard part of governing is telling people what they don’t want to hear, and being honest when the math doesn’t care what party you’re in.
If you’re tired of politics where everyone already has the answer before hearing the question. Subscribe (It’s free). Here, we wrestle with the math, the mess, and the uncomfortable middle. It’s not always clean. It’s definitely not Cheetos at midnight. But it is honest. So, stick around for the hard questions. We’ll tackle them with a calculator, not a Sharpie.
If you made it this far, you probably care about more than slogans.
So do I.
That’s why I gave a real answer at the town hall. Not a party line. Not a pre-approved soundbite. Just: I don’t know yet.
If that kind of honesty is worth something to you (especially in a job where it’s in short supply), consider supporting my re-election. The campaign doesn’t run on Cheetos and denial. It runs on people who believe the hard thing is still the right thing.
Because governing with integrity takes more than votes. It takes backup.
I'm surprised by how many of our fellow citizens think tariffs on Chinese goods are paid by the Chinese. Not so. Tariffs on other countries' products are paid at our border by purchasers in our own country. That hardware store down the street that got another order of shovels from China also got a new bill to pay from our customs agency that will be paid directly to the U.S. government. It's not just a hidden tax, it's a hidden point-of-sale sales tax, or its cousin, a passed-on gross receipts tax -- something, in either form, that Oregonians have a contentious history with. Just like a sales tax or a gross receipts tax, some of the effects of the tax may ultimately be absorbed by the Chinese producer, if they reduce prices to remain competitive. But those downstream effects are small; meanwhile the initial tax incidence (a technical term for who pays in the first transaction) will be borne in full by the U.S. importers and passed on in large part to U.S. consumers. Small manufacturers and niche businesses will be hit hardest by that, while Amazon and Wal-Mart will adjust. They have pricing power that small businesses don't have. Add to your list of ironies that Oregonians, so averse to a sales tax (soundly rejected in nine different statewide votes), and those who complained about the business activity tax enacted here in 2019 are turning a blind eye to the effects of tariffs on their household budgets.
By the way, that 2019 business tax (which I viewed at the time as a good way to improve out K-12 system) showed up as a separate item on the invoice for my last car purchase. But, to your point, at least it was transparent to the voter and to me as a consumer and, I would add, has been helpful to my local school district. Nothing in Trump's tariff regime will have a useful purpose of that kind; it's just leverage for him politically and, incidentally, a new source of money for the U.S Treasury (paid by us as consumers) to blunt the impact of his deficit-driven budget bill and the tax cuts it will deliver with the greatest benefits to the wealthiest among us.
My Dad was born in 1905 and lived through the depression. He was a minister, raising 4 children before churches started to recognize that ministers had the same expenses as everyone else. As a discipline in honesty (and a necessity) he carefully budgeted every penny - and when I received an allowance as a child to cover school lunch, tithing, and other real expenses (not comic books!), he required me to budget and keep an account of every penny. It was a practice of integrity and responsibility, which I carried into adulthood.
Thank you for your integrity.