Bad TRIP: Oregon’s Fiscal Hallucination

If the solution starts with a tax, it probably isn’t a solution. Because when politicians see a pothole, their first instinct is to reach for your wallet.

This week we got our first glimpse at the new transportation package. Strip away the buzzwords, and the $1.8 billion proposal—cleverly branded the “Transportation Reinvestment Package,” or TRIP (because of course it is)—starts to look less like a fix and more like a fundraising campaign. No structural overhaul at ODOT. No serious audit of where the last billions went. No effort to rebuild public trust. Just another round of “tax now, justify later.”

Which would be funny, if it weren’t so on brand.

I wrote back in February about how Oregon’s transportation policy was already veering off course—with shrinking fuel tax revenue and an ODOT that seemed more focused on forecasting excuses than fiscal responsibility. (Read my previous article: From Potholes to Politics, for those keeping score.) Well, the sequel is here—and it’s doubling down on the same old playbook.

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A Bumpy Road Called TRIP

Whoever came up with that acronym must’ve been on something stronger than coffee. TRIP sounds less like a transportation plan and more like a bad drug experience—complete with confusion, sticker shock, and the sinking feeling that you might never make it back to reality. Just close your eyes, hand over $1.8 billion, and hope the hallucination wears off before your tires hit another crater on 101.

But the details aren’t exactly relaxing:

• Gas tax jacked up by 20 cents per gallon over six years

• Payroll tax nearly doubled from 0.1% to 0.18%

• A new 1% vehicle sales tax

• A tire tax (because we needed another reason to dread tire replacement)

• A road usage charge for light vehicles and delivery fleets

That’s a whole menu of taxes and fees arriving at your doorstep, all in the name of fixing our roads and bridges. To be fair, Oregon’s infrastructure has seen better days. Anyone who’s driven along an Oregon state highway has that special pothole they remember—the one that rattles your fillings and leaves you wondering if your car just lost a wheel.

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The $1.8 Billion Elephant in the Room

We can all agree roads don’t magically maintain themselves. If you let them go too long, you end up spending more in repairs (both for your car and the pavement) than if you had simply kept up with consistent maintenance. But the scary figure here is the massive annual shortfall that ODOT says it needs to keep everything shipshape.

Now, unless you are Elon Musk, $1.8 billion is real money—even in government-speak. It’s the sort of deficit that makes local officials wince like they’re trying to pass a kidney stone. And what’s the strategy to tackle this monster? Not belt-tightening, apparently. Instead, the plan is to pass the collection plate around to anyone with a car, a job, or four tires.

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ODOT’s Magical Math

Before we rally around this “Taxpayers to the Rescue” plan, shouldn’t we ask how we got here in the first place? As it turns out, ODOT has a bit of a math problem.

A recent audit revealed ODOT overshot its own budget estimates by a cool $1.1 billion, all thanks to “forecasting errors.” That’s not just losing some spare change between the couch cushions—that’s losing the couch itself, the coffee table, and probably the living room. In a private company, that kind of number-fudging might get you an awkward conversation with HR, followed by a cardboard box for your office supplies. But in government, it’s more like: “Oops! Let’s raise taxes.”

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PLAs: Because Nothing Says “Efficiency” Like Fewer Bidders and Higher Costs

The cost of projects is another not-so-little snag in this story. Recently, the Governor signed an executive order requiring Project Labor Agreements (PLAs) on large-scale public works. That might sound innocuous, but it effectively means non-union contractors can’t easily bid on these projects. Fewer bidders often translates to higher prices—by some estimates, 13% to 20% higher. So if you’ve ever wondered why a mile of highway can cost more than the GDP of a small island nation, there’s your partial answer.

In practice, PLAs aren’t just about paying workers more (which, of course, is a complicated topic by itself). They also come with a thick layer of bureaucracy, special conditions, and administrative overhead.

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Meanwhile, Let’s Talk About the Guys Hauling Everything You Eat, Wear, and Flush

You know who really feels the burn when the state gets tax-happy with fuel and tolls? Truckers. Not the megacorps with lobbyists and fleet accountants—the small guys. The one-man operations. The family-run outfits with two Peterbilts and a dream. These folks aren’t just drivers—they’re small businesses on wheels. And every extra dime per gallon, every new “infrastructure fee” hits them straight in the bottom line.

These are the people delivering groceries to Nehalem, lumber from Tillamook, and milk from Boardman to Portland. When the state raises costs without fixing the choke points—without widening lanes, repairing surfaces, or coordinating better rest stops—it’s not just unfair, it’s sabotage. And no, telling them to “pass it on to the customer” doesn’t work in competitive freight markets. All it does is squeeze their margins until they either raise prices (hello, inflation!) or go out of business.

The TRIP proposal doesn’t seem to include much relief or reform for the people who literally keep the economy moving. Instead, it loads them up with more costs and red tape, while offering vague promises.

If we actually care about supply chains, food prices, and small businesses—not just ribbon cuttings and buzzwords—we should start by taking our boot off the neck of the trucking community.

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When All You’ve Got Is a Tax Hammer, Every Problem Looks Like a Wallet

So if we step back and look at the big picture: ODOT is short billions. Their budget estimates were off by a billion. They overspend on construction. Yet, instead of revamping the system to fix these blunders, the grand plan is to raise five different taxes—on everyone from working families to small businesses.

How is that fair to the average Oregonian? Picture a single mom in Warrenton who depends on her vehicle to get her kids to school and then commutes to her job at a local clinic. Now, she’s looking at higher gas taxes, a potential payroll tax bump, and who knows what else each time she buys new tires. If you want to see someone’s face register confusion and dismay all at once, that’s the conversation you’d have.

This approach smacks of a shrug, a big “Eh, we’ll just make everyone pay more.” It’s one thing to pay taxes when you know the money is being used wisely and with accountability. But so far, we’ve only seen a flurry of forecasting errors, questionable cost hikes, and a general reluctance to examine whether ODOT itself needs a fundamental rework.

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A Reality Check—Minus the Check

All right, enough handwringing—let’s talk solutions. Because it’s easy to say “Don’t raise taxes!” without providing alternatives. And yes, we do need functioning roads and bridges. If you think your commute is bad now, wait until bridges start literally crumbling.

1. Audit ODOT Top to Bottom
   You wouldn’t funnel more money into a high school fundraising committee if they were losing half the funds in the couch cushions. So why are we dumping billions into an agency that’s somehow misplaced $1.1 billion? Let’s get an independent audit team in there to scrutinize budgets, processes, and management structures. Post the findings publicly, so we know exactly who’s spending what—and where.

2. Cut Administrative Bloat
   We’ve all encountered the dreaded bureaucratic maze where each corner leads to another paper-pushing official. Trim the fat. Streamline operations. Put more of the budget directly into concrete, asphalt, and modern infrastructure solutions—less into questionable overhead.

3. Open Up Public Contracts
   Those Project Labor Agreements may keep union shops happy, but they’re driving costs through the roof. Open these projects to all qualified bidders. Competition won’t just lower costs; it often improves quality. Yes, that means political pushback, but good governance is about making tough calls when they’re right for taxpayers.

4. Explore Alternative Funding
   I’m not convinced we need to spend more—we already tax plenty. If there really is a shortfall after we clean house and cut the fat, then let’s talk smarter solutions like public-private partnerships. And tolls? I’m open to them only if we’re talking HOV lanes or temporary relief valves on truly overburdened corridors. But let’s be clear: any toll should come with a sunset provision. Otherwise, it becomes just another bottomless government piggy bank—long after the potholes are patched and the paint’s dry.

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Stop the Cycle of Spend, Tax, Repeat

We’ve all watched that classic movie where a lovably clueless hero spends half the film blowing money on ill-fated schemes. Government often seems stuck in a permanent sequel. Programs expand, budgets skyrocket, revenue falls short, and then—like clockwork—we get slapped with a new tax. Rinse and repeat. It’s a never-ending cycle that often leaves constituents wondering: Who’s steering this ship, and why does it keep hitting icebergs?

Let’s be honest: Government can spend any amount of money you give it. It’s the easiest thing in the world to burn through a blank check. What takes real creativity—and yes, real political courage—is to think like a responsible steward of public funds. That means looking for efficiencies, cutting pet projects, and having the humility to say, “We messed up.” Without that, we’re just plugging holes with taxpayer cash, hoping nobody notices the cracks growing in the foundation.

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Detour Ahead: Let’s Try Accountability for a Change

So here we are, Oregon: facing a massive shortfall, battered roads, questionable oversight, and a tax plan that reads like a multi-choice quiz—except the answer is “all of the above.” There’s no denying we need good infrastructure. And there’s no question it will cost money. But if ODOT wants more from the people, they owe us more in return. More transparency, more efficiency, and more accountability.

That’s the trip we actually need to take. A journey toward responsible government spending that doesn’t treat taxpayers like ATM machines. A trip where new taxes are the last resort, not the first. A plan that invests in roads, bridges, and public transit while refusing to pour dollars into a faulty system without demanding better results.

Until we do all that, Oregon’s transportation plan sounds less like a bold initiative and more like a shrugging apology followed by an outstretched hand—aimed directly at your wallet.